When Will the Housing Supply Normalize?

"Realty Goddess" note: I hate predictions, they depend on who is the person with the prediction.  The real estate market changes every single day and those of  us in the trenches are fighting the good fight, but I thought this one was worth sharing"

The housing supply is expected to normalize in two to four years, Barclays Capital projects, assuming that household formation rates increase to 1.1 million and construction remains slightly above 2011 levels.

Household formation–which is a reflection of population growth and housing affordability–has drastically dropped since 2007, reaching about 300,000 to 500,000 per year. Historically, the rate is about 1.25 million.

Home prices will likely see a 1 percent appreciation this year (that’s after falling 3 to 4 percent through March), Barclays Capital estimates. It is also projecting a 1 percent price appreciation in 2013, followed by 2 percent to 3 percent appreciation levels.

But to reach those goals, the housing supply needs to continue to shrink first. Our region in the Sierra Foothills of Placerville, California is experiencing a low supply in the under $300,000. price range. This is the primary market for first time home buyers and cash investors. So we’re off to a supply, demand race for the spring market?

Source: “Barclays: Housing Supply Could Normalize in 2014,” HousingWire (3/2/12) by Bud Zeller